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Romney Strong in 2012 Polling

It is that time of the week again, in which polling is released regarding the potential 2012 elections. I do not remember such a heavy interest in hypothetical matchups this early in other Presidential cycles. Perhaps, that itself is an indication of a trend in 2012; one that does not favor the administration, if so many are looking forward to the election in which we can finally be rid of the man and his disastrous policies. Anyway, the usual caveat applies about how it is too early for these numbers to matter, but this poll takes an interesting approach, surveying Romney’s chances in a three-way race.

Michael Bloomberg has done a lot for New York City, although at the expense of many of us in the rest of the state. As a mayor, he still does not fit into the powerful footsteps left behind by Rudy Giuliani, the man who refused to change the law to seek a third term as Bloomberg did. With his party switch, increasing social liberalism, self-described fiscal conservatism but with a penchant for raising taxes, conventional wisdom indicates that despite his popularity within New York City, he would gain little traction elsewhere. Nevertheless, Presidential speculation continues to surround Bloomberg. He has reportedly considered making a bid as an independent, with the belief that independents would support him over most Republicans.

The latest poll from Zogby International indicates that Bloomberg is wrong and the inclinations of conventional wisdom are indeed justified. In a poll of the three way race 2,062 likely voters narrowly favor Mitt Romney over Barack Obama and the New York City mayor. Romney leads with 42 percent of the vote, to Obama’s 41. Bloomberg meanwhile takes only six percent. Among independents, Bloomberg’s key constituency, Romney leads a 40-30-11 split, with the meager 11 percent take going to Bloomberg.

This news is not great for Bloomberg, but it is even worse for the President. While the New York City mayor is showing the sort of weakness one would expect from the earliest days of a yet hypothetical third party candidacy, comparisons to other polls show that Bloomberg is not taking, as one might expect from the Republican challenger. Rather, he is drawing his small number equally from both sides, if not a little more from the left. Furthermore, as a greater share of the populace outside of New York learn more of Bloomberg and his clearly left-wing political views, it could be expected that he would draw any further support significantly away from Obama.

Bloomberg’s business credentials do not benefit him as an alternate answer to the economy, as he wins the support of only five percent of small business owners. The plurality, 49 percent, favor the low taxes and true fiscal conservative reform that would come with a Romney administration.

As Democrats desire and mainstream Republicans fear a split within the GOP from the growing strength of the Tea Party movement, the many varying styles of American conservatism appear ready to unite on common principles in the effort to take back this nation; Romney takes a solid 84 percent of Tea Party voters. Meanwhile, should Bloomberg indeed enter the fray, it is his fellow social liberal Barack Obama, who will need to fear an independent candidate siphoning his voters.

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