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Hypothetical 2012 Primaries

Once again, it is so early that it is a stretch to take consider 2012 numbers even as much as a vague guideline. This however has not kept Public Policy Polling from giving us some fun speculation as to possible primary results. Right now, the polling shows a tight four way match, that gives way after South Carolina to a two way battle between Romney and… Newt Gingrich. The battle goes to Florida, where Romney currently has an edge. It is a fun read, if nothing else.

Public Policy Polling – The 2012 GOP Contest

One assumption of the analysis that I have to question though, is that it indicates that Gingrich would be able to position himself as the stronger conservative to Romney. I am not so certain of that. Memories of Gingrich’s friendliness toward Nancy Pelosi and discussion of “climate change” may scare away former Palin voters… and of course in a scenario as described above, should Palin drop out after South Carolina, she would have remarkable power behind her endorsement of one of the remaining two. Some have argued that Sarah Palin does not want to have the top spot herself, but would like to be kingmaker to ensure that the best conservative takes the top spot. If this scenario plays out, she would certainly have that position before the Florida primary.

Still lots of twists and turns to this campaign before then. We still have liberals to root out of Congress this November…  but a little speculation now and then is entertaining.

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