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2012 Polling Numbers

Although the election is still more than two years away, and any 2012 polling numbers before the mid-terms should not be taken all that seriously, a couple of recent polls show a few interesting developments regarding the next Presidential contest.

First is from the generally reputable Public Policy Polling, which shows Governor Romney leading the primary field by a strong margin in the traditional early state of New Hampshire. 31% favor Romney in the primary campaign, to 14% for second place Newt Gingrich. Third place goes to Ron Paul with 13%. Huckabee takes 12%, Palin 9%, Pawlenty 3%. If you follow the link, the internals of the poll are fairly interesting, showing Romney running well among conservatives, and those happy with the party.

Considering the latest trend requiring early states to apportion their delegates proportionally, that is no winner-take-all among states in February or March, such an outcome would do well for Romney. He takes more than twice the vote of his nearest competitor. Huckabee and Palin, who would conventionally be considered Romney’s strongest rivals for the nomination would be mired in fourth and fifth, leaving them with only a handful of delegates and decreased momentum. Of course, campaigning in New Hampshire has not even started yet so this race has plenty of development left in it. Still, Romney begins with a very respectable advantage in the widely watched primary state.

The second poll is much more telling, in my opinion. It is a general election poll, done by Zogby Interactive, which shows Romney trailing Obama by two points, 45-43 among likely voters in an hypothetical 2012 election. Of course, it is easy to notice the headline generated by the left wing media, “Obama defeats Romney,” etc…. In actuality though the true story behind this poll is not all that different than the recent PPP poll showing Romney leading the President by three; this is not good news for the administration.

When the mainstream media is done celebrating the fact that Obama is “winning,” maybe they should note that the incumbent President is within the margin of error against a candidate that has not yet even announced a Presidential run…

  • and that Obama is only at 45% himself…

  • and that Obama does not break 50% against any challenger…

  • which in this poll includes Clint Eastwood, Tom Selleck, and Chuck Norris.

  • Seriously, the media is bragging about the fact that Obama defeats all takers, but has no comment on the fact that he has a clear ceiling of support that is well below 50%. The President does not take more than 48% of the hypothetical vote against any of the proposed candidates and is at only 45 or 46% against five of the seven. The poll shows a great deal of uncertainty about the Republican field. Romney runs significantly stronger than Huckabee or Palin (oddly enough Gingrich and Pawlenty were not considered in this poll), but Obama can’t engineer a majority against any candidate. This indicates that while opinions are fluid on the Republicans as a whole, they are pretty well set about the President. Uncertainty can be overcome through effective campaigning.

    The Obama agenda, however, has been thoroughly rejected by the voters. It is odd sometimes how consistently ignoring public opinion will do that. It must be odd, as  the administration is consistently unable to realize that fact.

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    1. July 28, 2010 at 4:11 pm

      Very interesting article, thanks. Keep up the good work.

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